Orders for Class 5 to Class 8 trucks remained down year over year in November despite a small monthly increase following the presidential election.
Low freight rates, in conjunction with elevated interest rates, have limited the upside for the transportation industry so far this year, Dan Moyer, senior analyst of commercial vehicles at transportation research firm FTR, said in a Dec. 5 research note.
“Despite a sluggish freight market, fleets have continued to invest in new equipment, mainly at replacement demand levels, so far in 2024,” he stated in the note.
While there’s some positivity in the trucking industry due to replacement-level demand, sustained low freight rates remain a concern, Kit West, business development director at equipment lender C.H. Brown, told Equipment Finance News.
“As far as the trucking industry goes, it’s going to be stagnant still,” he said. “With the rates that they get on a loaded mile, it’s going to probably remain the same. Unless we have an epic event that drops it or raises it for whatever reason that is, those aren’t going to change a whole lot.”
The presidential election could become an “epic event” that shifts the entire transportation market, as proposed tariffs could affect freight and order costs, Moyer said.
“The solid month-over-month increase in net orders might reflect some fleets choosing to place orders following the conclusion of the November U.S. elections, but the election impact might not end there,” he said. “On Nov. 25, President-elect Donald Trump announced plans to impose tariffs as one of his first executive orders, proposing a 25% tariff on all imports from Mexico and Canada. … More than 40% of Class 8 trucks built for the U.S. market currently are built in Mexico.”
Medium-duty orders drop 30% YoY
November medium-duty orders totaled 16,500 units, down 30% YoY but up 3.8% MoM, according to ACT Research’s State of the Industry: NA Classes 5-8 report released Dec. 3. Despite the monthly uptick, November still represented “the third weakest net order tally of 2024,” Kenny Vieth, ACT president and senior analyst, said in the release.
“Medium-duty Classes 5-7 orders continue their consistent, if slowly deflating, trajectory into historically elevated truck and bus backlogs,” he said.
November North America Class 8 orders totaled 37,200 units, down 11% YoY, but up 21.6% MoM, Vieth said.
“We are still in the early stages of the industry’s building of 2025 backlogs, but through November, seasonally strong orders have made little progress in closing the backlog gap compared to year-ago levels,” he said.
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