Core capital goods orders rise 12.5% YoY in June

Orders for core capital goods increased in June as businesses continued to invest in equipment, supported by spending on AI infrastructure. 

Core capital goods orders, which exclude aircraft and defense equipment, totaled a seasonally adjusted $85.1 billion in June, up 0.9% month over month and 12.5% year over year, according to today’s Monthly Advance Report on Durable Goods Manufacturers’ Shipments, Inventories and Orders, released by the U.S. Census Bureau. 

Shipments of core capital goods totaled $83 billion, up 1.9% MoM and 9.3% YoY, according to the report. 

Core Capital Goods — Shipments and New Orders 

“As in Q1, growth was likely driven by robust business investment, with the AI buildout supporting a double-digit gain in equipment spending,” according to a July 24 Wells Fargo Economics note. 

AI investment goes beyond infrastructure development for equipment dealerships. Private equity firm Brenton Point Capital Partners’ network has given Premier Equipment Solutions access to AI training, quarterly technology discussions and executive advisers as the equipment dealer builds its technology stack, Premier Chief Operating Officer Jim Grande said. 

Core capital goods represent a subset of durable goods that gauges business equipment investment, including assets such as construction machinery, farm equipment, forklifts and heavy-duty trucks. The broader durable goods category also includes consumer products, automobiles, defense equipment and aircraft. 

Wells Fargo had projected that total durable goods orders would increase 2.1% MoM in June. Orders instead totaled $334.8 billion, up 0.3% MoM and 7.4% YoY, according to Census data. Durable goods shipments totaled $330.7 billion, up 0.7% MoM and 9% YoY. 

Computers and electronic products led the monthly increase in durable goods orders, rising 3.1% to $31.1 billion, while shipments increased 2.4% to $34.7 billion. Machinery orders totaled $43.7 billion, down 0.1% MoM, while machinery shipments increased 1.7% to $42.2 billion. 

The AI equipment boom also carries trade and pricing implications. About 90% of equipment used by U.S. high-tech industries is imported, largely from East Asia, according to a July 14 Federal Reserve research note. Sustained AI investment could widen the current-account deficit and increase exposure to rising import prices, although adding new equipment can support longer-term productivity growth, according to the note. 

On an unadjusted basis, first-half machinery orders increased 11.5% compared with the first half of 2025. 

Unfilled orders, total inventories 

Unfilled orders for core capital goods reached $312 billion in June, up 0.7% MoM and 3.8% YoY, according to the Census report. Core capital goods inventories totaled $186.9 billion, up 0.2% MoM and 2% YoY. 

Core Capital Goods — Total Inventories and Unfilled Orders 

Unfilled orders for all durable goods totaled $1.59 trillion, up 0.6% MoM and 8.2% YoY. Total durable goods inventories reached $602 billion, up 0.3% MoM and 2.2% YoY. 

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