Farm equipment values mostly declined again in October as election concerns and typical seasonality led to a market slowdown.
The consecutive months of decline in asking and auction values precede a projected slowdown in financing activity in November before a potential yearend increase in purchases, Jay Darden, regional sales manager for the East Coast at Farm Credit Express, told Equipment Finance News.
“Typically, November, as far as loan originations, is our slowest month of the year, so we’re anticipating a slow November, and then we do anticipate some tax buying,” he said. “Not as aggressive as the last few years of yearend tax buying, but we do expect a degree of uptick.”
For dealers and lenders looking to move equipment and trying to recoup values ahead of yearend, being proactive remains key, Jim Ryan, equipment lease and finance manager at Sandhills Global, which issues a monthly report on the state of the industry, told EFN.
“Waiting to the last minute — it’s never a good thing,” he said. “Technically, yearend really starts now, as these decisions were kind of already made or being made right now, so being proactive with it and getting stuff out in the market, there’s a chance to capture better values.”
Meanwhile, equipment manufacturers such as CNH Industrial plan to under-produce retail over the next several months, complicating goals for dealers and lenders, CNH Chief Executive Gerrit Marx said during the company’s Nov. 8 third-quarter earnings call.
“When we take a look at the agriculture tractors, for example, we expect to under-produce retail in the fourth quarter by probably about 30% to 40%, and then, given the season coming, we’ll hold and make sure that we have fresh machines in the dealers for the season to come,” he said. “In the fourth quarter, we are also slightly under-producing retail … we have in tractors and combines, a more aligned view in the first quarter, and then we continue to under-produce retail in Q2 and look at basically having that matched again in the second half.”
Compact, utility tractor values fall
For used compact and utility tractors, retail, or asking, values declined 0.2% month over month and 4.3% year over year, continuing a 10-monthlong trend, according to Sandhills Global data provided to EFN. Meanwhile, auction values declined 0.2% MoM and 5.9% YoY in October, marking eight straight months of decline.
Inventory for compact and utility tractors, defined as tractors under 100 horsepower, increased 5% MoM and 21.4% YoY in October. For equipment under 40 horsepower, inventories fell the most, down 6.8% MoM and 26.5% YoY.
Large farm equipment inventory rises YoY
Combine equipment asking values rose 0.8% MoM and 0.9% YoY, while auction values increased 0.5% MoM and 8% YoY in October, widening the gap between the two values, according to Sandhills. Inventory for combines increased 5.7% MoM but decreased 7.6% YoY in October.
Sprayer asking values inched up 0.3% MoM but were down 5.3% YoY, while auction values increased 2.8% MoM but fell 20.6% YoY in October as asking values lagged auction values, according to Sandhills. Inventory for sprayers grew 3.7% MoM and 28.4% YoY in October.
Planter asking values declined 1.8% MoM and 10.1% YoY, while auction values declined 3.3% MoM and 24.1% YoY in October, with the gap between asking and auction values nearing historic levels, according to Sandhills. Inventory for planters decreased 0.5% MoM but increased 1.1% YoY in October.
Inventory jump for high-horsepower tractors
Inventory for high-horsepower tractors increased 1.6% MoM and 29% YoY in October and continues to trend upward, according to Sandhills. Asking values for high-horsepower tractors inched up 0.7% MoM but fell 3.6% YoY, while auction values rose 1.5% MoM but dropped 13.8% YoY in October, widening the gap between the two values to levels not seen since 2015, Sandhills’ Ryan said.
“We’re pushing 10 years since this has really happened on the ag side,” he said. “Some of these dealers that are going to roll this inventory over are going to realize they need to be more aggressive in pricing, and so you’ll see that asking value start closing, but it’s going to take some time. It’s not going to happen over a month or two.”
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