Commercial truck lenders are preparing to capitalize on increased confidence in the industry while cautioning against overzealousness.
In recent months, the trucking industry has begun recovering from a yearslong slump, as evidenced by increased tonnage and a 6.6% bump in retail sales for used Class 8 trucks in October.
While commercial truck lenders have been anticipating continued slow improvement in 2025, optimism kicked up a notch among fleet owners following the presidential election, Matt Manero, president of Carrollton, Texas-based Commercial Fleet Financing, told Equipment Finance News.
“It is not a red and blue environment anymore. It is green, and I mean green as in make money. I mean green, all systems go. To me, that’s what the result of the election was. It created this underlying confidence that was very, very needed.”
— Matt Manero, president, Commercial Fleet Financing
Republican Donald Trump’s November victory has already led to an uptick in truck financing demand from owner-operators, Chris Grivas, president of Chadds Ford, Pa.-based CAG Truck Capital, told EFN.
“They’re really pleased that we’re going to have a change in administration,” he said. “They are pleased that diesel fuel costs have continued to decline.”
The average on-highway diesel fuel price in the U.S. was $3.46 per gallon as of Dec. 9, down 13.3% year over year, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration.
Trump’s plan to increase domestic oil drilling in hopes of further reducing fuel costs is one policy that’s driving optimism among owner-operators, Grivas said.
Stick to niche
The commercial vehicle financing market is valued at $105.2 billion in 2024 and is projected to grow 6.7% annually over the next five years to $145.2 billion, according to market research firm Mordor Intelligence.
Higher demand and expected lower interest rates will allow truck lenders to grow their portfolios while increasing financing margins, Grivas said, noting that he plans to finance more “cool stuff” in 2025, including specialized vocational trucks. However, lenders must choose the “exact areas” where they want to be aggressive and learn from mistakes that contributed to the 2022 freight recession, he said.
“Finance companies were going gangbusters, wanting to lend money when trucking was artificially inflated during COVID,” Grivas said. “People felt like they had to do more business, new originations. But you’re going to end up doing $100 million worth of loans with $60 million in collateral.”
While Commercial Fleet’s Manero is taking a “full throttle” approach into the new year, he similarly said lenders should “stick to their niches.”
Challenges ahead
Despite optimism surrounding Trump’s second term, his proposed tariffs could cause inflation and hinder economic activity, “exactly what the industry doesn’t need right now,” Steve Tam, vice president of ACT Research, told EFN.
Waiting for more interest rate cuts and other signs of market improvements could also constrain industry growth in 2025, Manero said.
“You don’t want to wait for the tide to come halfway back in before you start making moves. Then it’s too late. You got to move now. So, I would encourage our industry to be aggressive.”
— Matt Manero, Commercial Fleet Financing
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