Overall sales for commercial trucks declined in the first quarter of 2024 as high-interest rates and prices pushed down demand for heavy-duty trucks.
But as heavy-duty truck sales declined, medium-duty sales saw a slight increase, but not enough to pull up overall sales, according to Americas Commercial Transportation (ACT) Research’s data.
According to ACT Research:
- First-quarter truck sales totaled 113,169 units, down 4.1% year over year;
- Q1 heavy-duty truck sales finished at 55,862 units, down 14% YoY;
- Q1 medium-duty truck sales ended at 57,307 units, up 8% YoY;
- March truck sales were 39,619 units, down 11.3% YoY;
- March heavy-duty truck sales dropped 21% YoY to 19,658 units; and
- March medium-duty truck sales rose 1% YoY to 19,961 units.
Heavy-duty trucks include Class 8 trucks and medium-duty trucks include Class 5 to 7 trucks, according to ACT Research.
The average Class 8 retail sales price landed at $62,128, down 14.1% YoY in February.
Rising prices on diesel heavy- and medium-duty trucks continue to have an impact on truck sales and orders, Mark Stone, corporate general manager at Vestal, N.Y.-based Burr Truck & Trailer Sales, told Equipment Finance News.
“Diesel truck prices have also climbed 10% in the past two years and continue to climb,” he said. “This has impacted those orders as well. As a whole, our industry has seen a significant slowdown in Class 4 to 8 diesel and gas new-truck sales.”
Truck market expectations
While Q1 truck sales declined, projections for the rest of 2024 remained consistent, Volvo Group Chief Executive Martin Lundstedt said during the company’s April 17 earnings call.
“When it comes to the truck market forecast around the globe, it is rather undramatic since we are actually reiterating most of our forecast that we have had from last quarter,” he said. “For the full year in North America and in Europe, we reiterate what we have already said, 290,000 for North America and 280,000 for Europe, and it is important to remember that those levels are still representing good and solid levels and more underlying trend line.”
The projected delay in interest rate cuts is concerning for the trucking industry, Patrick Manzi, chief economist for the National Automobile Dealers Association (NADA), said in an American Truck Dealers (ATD) release.
“Based on recent inflation data, we don’t think the [Federal Reserve] will end up cutting rates in June 2024,” he said. “This means higher rates for longer, which will hurt the trucking industry and the broader economy. Still, we expect a solid year for commercial truck sales, even though the total truck market is likely to see an overall sales decline from 2023.”
NADA and ATD forecast 2024 medium-duty sales of 248,000 units and heavy-duty truck sales of 228,000 units, Manzi said. The current forecasts represent an almost 6% total market decline.
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