New forecast projects equipment prices weakening in next year

Equipment rental and leasing prices are projected to decline in 2025 as inflation continues to improve and the Federal Reserve’s rate cuts help the industry.  

That according to two new forecasts of equipment pricing indexes published today by Equipment Finance News.  

Developed to provide indicators for commercial equipment rental and leasing pricing trends, the interactive forecasts are updated daily, based on data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics and the Chicago Mercantile Exchange. The indexes serve as a benchmark for pricing trends, with 100 as the price baseline. The indexes’ forecasts provide a sense for pricing directions over the next 12 months.  

All equipment forecasts decline

Prices for the rental and leasing of construction, mining and forestry equipment appear to be headed down. The pricing index is projected to drop 1.8% YoY over the next 12 months before landing at 103.8 in October 2025, implying a weakening in the market for construction, mining and forestry equipment. 

In addition, truck, trailer and RV rental and leasing prices are forecasted to decline 0.9% year-over-year between October 2024 and October 2025, reaching an index value of 127.6. 

Index & Forecast: Rental and Leasing Pricing for Equipment and Truck, Trailers and RV

Data sources: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Chicago Mercantile Exchange
Forecast source: Equipment Finance News

While the forecast for rental and leasing prices combined are projected to decline, rental and leasing prices signal a mixed outlook as truck, trailer and RV rental prices are projected to dip while leasing prices should rise. The index of truck, trailer and RV rental prices landed at 131.9 for October 2024, up 3.2% YoY, while the index for truck, trailer and RV leases finished at 123.3 for the same month, down 1.1% YoY. 

Index & Forecast: Truck, Truck Trailer and RV Pricing

Data sources: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Chicago Mercantile Exchange
Forecast source: Equipment Finance News

Market outlook 

Although the Fed cut interest rates by another quarter point Nov. 7, inflation has buffetted rental pricing and leasing.  As the industry balances rising prices with consumer demand, Sarah House, managing director and senior economist at Wells Fargo, said recently that “for 2025, we’re already looking at more incremental improvement on the inflation front, and part of that comes from the fact that we’ve really seen commodity prices move more or less sideways over the past year.”   

A drop in the equipment pricing indexes, as forecasted by Equipment Finance News, supports House’s comments. 

“We’re not getting this big downdraft in inflation coming from a correction in those, and we’ve also seen a lot of the benefits of the unkinking of the supply chain scenarios that we saw back at the height of the pandemic,” she added. 

The forecasts released by Equipment Finance News today are the first of a series the news publication expects to issue in the coming months. The forecasts were built by the Equipment Finance News data team, which has expanded this year. 

The third annual Equipment Finance Connect at the JW Marriott Nashville in Nashville, Tenn., on May 14-15, 2025, is the only event that brings together equipment dealers and lenders to share insights, attend discussions on crucial industry topics and network with peers. Learn more about the event and register here.