Trucking industry expects weak improvement in 2026

The financial health of the trucking industry in North America appears to be headed for weak improvement in 2026, with economic uncertainty continuing, even as capacity, utilization, freight and manufacturing are growing. 

Normal investment decisions continue, heavy-duty equipment orders are still being deferred and manufacturing growth is uneven and concentrated in sectors that do not drive freight demand, Chief Executive Jonathan Starks of FTR said during a Jan. 8 webinar sponsored by the truck market research firm. 

“We’re back to growth, and that growth, that really leads to a strong early domestic transportation place, but we’re at least building up some growth in there,” he said. As FTR returns to a growing marketplace, the focus will stay on capacity for 2026. 

Capacity appears to be nearing the bottom, with regulatory and cost pressures likely to have only incremental impact as the freight forecast increasingly drives the discussion, Avery Vise, vice president of trucking at FTR said during the webinar. 

“If we have a stronger-than-expected freight forecast, we’re going to be looking at a substantially tighter freight market in trucking by the end of the year,” he said.  

Despite continued uncertainty and external disruptions, confidence remains that freight volumes will gradually rise, truckers will regain financial health and current stress within the trucking industry will work through the system rather than worsen, Kit West, business development and director of broker relations at truck financier C.H. Brown, told EFN. 

“The only thing that’s going to affect us is a worldwide event of some sort,” he said. “You just prepare yourself internally for something that’s going to change, and that we’re not going to be able to see it coming.” 

Ultimately, truck utilization continues to strengthen and is nearing 96%, an amount that supports modest rate increases that remain well below past cycle peaks, although the stronger freight demand could quickly push utilization and rates higher than forecast, Vise said. 

Check out our exclusive industry data here.