US wholesale inflation unexpectedly accelerated in November on a surge in egg prices, while other categories suggested a muted increase in the Federal Reserve’s preferred price gauge.
The producer price index for final demand rose 0.4% from a month earlier, the most since June, according to a Bureau of Labor Statistics report released Thursday. Details showed little change or outright declines in several key categories of services prices, which economists read as allaying some concerns over recent firming in broader inflation metrics.
The inflation data and filings for unemployment insurance, which showed an uptick in applications in the week after Thanksgiving, were among the last key indicators to be published before the Fed’s policy meeting next week. The US central bank is widely expected to cut its benchmark rate for a third straight gathering and signal a slower pace of reductions in 2025.
Thursday’s PPI report followed the more closely watched consumer price index, which showed Wednesday that underlying inflation remained firm for a fourth month. The string of hotter numbers comes after a rapid moderation earlier in 2024, and has added to uncertainty over the trajectory for prices and interest rates as the incoming Trump administration threatens higher tariffs on imported goods.
Still, economists pay close attention to the PPI report because several of its components feed into the Fed’s preferred inflation measure — the personal consumption expenditures price index — and those were favorable across the board in November. Health care categories like hospitals, physician services, nursing home services and home health care were little changed.
Portfolio management services — a category that captures fees paid to investment advisers and generally tracks movements in the stock market — fell along with airfares.
While the November PCE reading won’t be published by the time of the Fed’s policy meeting next week, central bankers will have a good idea of what it will show based on the CPI and PPI reports. Economists at Bank of America said they expect the it to show a 0.1% rise following the release of the PPI data, which would mark the smallest increase in six months.
“If our forecast proves correct, it would be a relief and leave us less worried about the recent trajectory of inflation. Moreover, it increases our conviction that the Fed will cut next week,” they said in a note. “That said, the outlook beyond that remains murky. Progress on inflation has stalled of late, and there are upside risks to inflation on the horizon.”
Separate figures showed first-time applications for jobless benefits increased last week to a two-month high. Continuing claims, a proxy for the number of people receiving benefits, rose in the week that included the Thanksgiving holiday.
The PPI data showed goods prices jumped 0.7%, the most since February. The BLS said more than 80% of the advance was traced to food. Egg prices surged 55% from a month earlier, largely reflecting the impact of bird flu.
Overall services costs in the PPI report edged up 0.2%, the least in four months. Goods prices, excluding food and energy, rose by a similar amount.
