Heavy-duty electric vehicles, especially in the Class 8 space, face a tough road as the economics behind zero emission-vehicles don’t line up with regulatory demands.
North American Class 8 battery electric vehicle (BEV) adoption rate sits at 1.6% for the 2025 model year and projects to hit 13% by 2030 and 29% by 2040, according to ACT Research.
The projected low adoption rate, especially in the next five years is because regulations continue to be the primary motivation for EVs rather than finances, Lydia Vieth, research analyst for electrification and autonomy at ACT Research, said last week during the ACT Research Seminar in Columbus, Ind.
“It’s not until we get into 2030 that there’s any appreciable contribution for our forecast based on a financially driven [reason],” she said. “Once we get all the way out into 2040 technology improvements and changes, we see that as being very favorable toward battery electric, but not until 2040.”
For comparison, North American Class 4 and Class 5 BEV adoption rate sits at 4.1% for 2025, but projects to hit 39% by 2030 and 64% by 2040, according to ACT Research.
North American Class 6 and Class 7 BEV adoption rate sits at 5% for 2025, and projects to hit 27% by 2030 and 57% by 2040, as lower weight classes show cost favorability, Vieth said. Lower weight classes have higher adoption rates because the duty cycles, or activity periods, fit better with current battery charging limitation.
“When you look at Class 8 duty cycles, they’re not as favorable for adoption right now, and so we see much lower adoption rates,” she said.
2030 and 2040 serve as key transition years in the National Blueprint for Decarbonization released by the U.S. Department of Energy.
2040 targets and beyond
Daimler, Traton, Volvo, IVECO, and BYD plan to manufacture and sell only zero-emission vehicles (ZEVs) by 2040, while Isuzu and Hino/Fuso plan to manufacture and sell only ZEVs by 2050, Vieth said. 2050 is the White House’s current target year for net zero, according to a report by the United States Department of State.
“Everyone else, at least by 2050, will be zero-emission,” she said. “They are saying that even today, and nobody has been relaxing that.”
While regulations, including from the California Air Resources Board and the Environmental Protection Agency have updated nitrogen oxide (NOx) emissions standards, place restrictions on commercial vehicles beginning in 2027 and continue to drive adoption, technology remains a key component, Vieth said.
“Technology is the savior. When you look at this being the stick, technology is the carrot. Things are really going and improving even more so in battery, energy density keeps getting better, battery costs are dropping” as are EV charging costs.
Another factor affecting the future of EVs is the balance between fuel cell EVs and BEVs, although the long-term market favors BEVs, Vieth said.
“We see fuel cells as having some applications more in niche, we see it fairly negligible in this calendar or next calendar year, and we don’t see it taking off until you get into that second decade,” she said.
“It’s a tradeoff between a fuel cell or a battery electric, and battery electric technology is improving all along, so some of the advantages that people might see a fuel cell have, the battery electric is catching up.”
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