Donald Trump’s tariffs are upending crop trading, delaying tractor purchases and constraining imports of chemical supplies into the US.
That’s the main message from big agricultural businesses as they report their quarterly earnings, giving an early glimpse into the far-reaching impacts of the US president’s trade war.
The disruptions in global trade threaten to extend a years-long slump in the US farm industry, which had already been struggling with ample supplies, depressed crop prices and rising competition from Brazil. Lack of clarity on how the Trump administration will address much-needed incentives for crop-based fuels in the next few years has added to concerns.
Crop traders and processors have been among the hardest-hit. Archer-Daniels-Midland Co. and Bunge Global SA saw their combined operating profits slump by about $750 million in the first quarter, with both companies citing an impact from trade and biofuel policy uncertainty.
Importers put off purchases of US grain and oilseeds as Trump threatened tariffs as well as levies on any Chinese vessels docking at American ports, reducing trade flows, according to crop merchant The Andersons Inc.
“Global trade uncertainties disrupted typical grain flows and caused many of our commercial customers to focus on just-in-time purchasing,” William Krueger, The Andersons chief executive officer, said Wednesday in a call with investors.
Tractor makers CNH Industrial NV and AGCO Corp. also reported lower first-quarter sales, and warned of the potential of reduced demand for farmers, which would give them less to spend on machines to plant, harvest and treat their fields. Both companies have raised prices to ease the impact of tariffs on costs.
“Geopolitical uncertainties and trade frictions have dampened US farmer sentiment recently,” AGCO CEO Eric Hansotia said during a conference call with analysts. “As a result, demand for machinery was lower in the quarter than we had expected.”
Duties also threaten to curb imports of some fertilizer and pesticide supplies. Shipments of phosphate — a key crop nourishing ingredient — into the US have trailed last year’s levels because vessels have been diverted to other countries to avoid the nation’s 10% tariff, Mosaic Co. said in its earnings statement.
“The phosphate market remains tight, and while tariffs could disrupt trade flows, they cannot create more phosphate supply,” CEO Bruce Bodine said on a conference call with investors.
Farmers are expected to pay more for pesticides as the US relies on tariff-hit countries such as China and India for some of its supplies. Nutrien Ltd. said its branded products could potentially cost as much as 7.5% more, with even higher adjustments expected for generic ingredients, as a result.
“Long story short is, we’re going to see price increases,” Jeff Tarsi, Nutrien’s president of global retail, said on a Thursday call. “Our plan is to pass those price increases through to our customers.”
Brazil is emerging as a winner from the trade tensions. Minerva SA said tariff turmoil drove increased Chinese demand and higher export prices for South American beef in the first quarter, helping lift profits for the Brazilian supplier. Meanwhile, China has effectively shut its market for US meat exporters including Smithfield Foods Inc.
China, the world’s largest commodity importer, has already shifted to Brazil for a meaningful part of its soybean needs since Trump first raised tariffs on goods from the Asian nation in 2018.
“Any harmful impacts to the US grower profitability stemming from tariffs and trade flow shifts” are likely to benefit Brazilian growers, Jenny Wang, executive vice president of commercial at Mosaic, said in the call with analysts.
