Core capital goods orders rise in October as tariff uncertainty declines

Orders for core capital goods increased in October as U.S. economic policy uncertainty hit its lowest point since February amid more tariff clarity. 

In October, core capital goods orders, which exclude aircraft and defense equipment, totaled $78 billion, up 0.5% month over month and 3.1% year over year, according to the Monthly Advance Report on Durable Goods Manufacturers’ Shipments Inventories and Orders, released today by the U.S. Census Bureau. Shipments for core capital goods totaled $77.7 billion in October, up 0.7% MoM and 1.9% YoY. 

While orders and shipments for core capital goods continue to rise, tariffs remain a business concern, with 68% of OEMs feeling at least a moderate impact related to tariffs, according to consulting firm Oliver Wyman’s 2025 State of Industrial Goods North America, Non-Road report, released Dec. 3. The report surveyed 105 equipment manufacturer executives in conjunction with the Association of Equipment Manufacturers.  

Meanwhile, many tier-two and tier-three suppliers are also under severe strain, with more than 150 exiting the market in two years. This has resulted in the remaining suppliers, OEMs and dealers developing “war rooms” to develop solutions, Michael Sharov, a partner in Oliver Wyman’s Transportation and Advanced Industrials practice, told Equipment Finance News. 

“These standing war rooms, all of the tariff talks and trying to solve it internally are taking away from valuable time to serve the customer. That has been the greatest impact on day-to-day operations.” — Michael Sharov, partner in Oliver Wyman’s Transportation and Advanced Industrials practice

October’s new orders for durable goods were $307.4 billion, down 2.2% MoM but up 7.1% YoY, according to the Census Bureau’s report. Shipments for durable goods landed at $309.6 billion, up 0.6% MoM and 3.3% YoY. 

Unfilled orders, total inventories  

Unfilled orders for core capital goods reached $301.5 billion in October, up 0.1% MoM and 0.8% YoY, according to the report. Additionally, total inventories for core capital goods totaled $184.5 billion in October, up 0.2% MoM and 2.6% YoY. 

Durable goods unfilled orders landed at $1.5 trillion in October, up 0.2% MoM and 8% YoY, according to the report. Durable goods total inventories were $590.5 billion in October, up 0.1% MoM and 1.9% YoY. 

The increases in core capital goods and durable goods performance come as October marked the lowest since February, landing at an index value of 309.6, down 57.4% compared to April’s peak, according to the monthly U.S. Economic Policy Uncertainty Index created by the Policy Uncertainty project, a team of U.S. financial researchers. 

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